Manmade global warming and a natural surge in Earth’s surface temperature will join forces to make the next five years exceptionally hot, according to a study published Tuesday.
The double whammy of climate change and so-called natural variability more than doubles the likelihood of “extreme warm events” in ocean surface waters, creating a dangerous breeding ground for hurricanes and typhoons, they reported in Nature Communications.
“This warm phase is reinforcing long-term climate change,” lead author Florian Sevellec, a climate scientist at the University of Brest in France, told AFP.
“This particular phase is expected to continue for at least five years.”
Earth’s average surface temperature has always fluctuated.
Over the last million years, it vacillated roughly every 100,000 years between ice ages and balmy periods warmer than today.
Over the last 11,000 years, those variations have become extremely modest, allowing our species to flourish.
Manmade climate change — caused by billions of tonnes of greenhouse gases injected into the atmosphere, mainly over the last century — has come on top of those small shifts, and today threatens to overwhelm them.
Teasing apart the influence of carbon pollution and natural variation has long bedevilled scientists trying hey to quantify the impact of climate change on cyclones, droughts, floods and other forms of extreme weather.
– Natural warming v. manmade change –
Sevellec and his colleagues tackled the problem in a different way.
First, they focused on the natural fluctuations that — for most climate scientists — are “noise” obscuring the climate change fingerprint.
Second, they used a streamlined statistical approach rather than the comprehensive climate models that generate most long-term forecasts.
“We developed a system for predicting interannual” — or short-term — “natural variations in climate,” Sevellec said.
“For the period 2018-2022, we found an anomaly equivalent to the impact of anthropogenic warming.”
Natural warming, in other words, will have about the same impact as manmade climate change over the next five years.
The likelihood of a marine heatwave or other ocean “warming events” is predicted to increase by 150 percent.
The new method — dubbed PROCAST, for PRObabilistic foreCAST — was tested against past temperature records and proved at least as accurate as standard models.
It can be run in seconds on a laptop, rather than requiring weeks of computing time on a super-computer.
“This opens of the possibility of doing climate forecasts to more researchers, especially in countries that don’t have easy access to super-computers,” Sevellec said.
The researchers intend to adapt their system to make regional predictions, and — in addition to temperature — to estimate rainfall and drought trends.
The Paris climate treaty calls for capping global warming at “well below” two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), and 1.5 C if deemed feasible.
On current trends, however, Earth is on track to heat up by twice that much before the end of the century.
New Delhi, Aug 14: Reacting to the chargesheet filed against Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia in connection with the alleged assault of Delhi Chief Secretary Anshu Prakash in February , the Aam Aadmi party on monday termed it as a ‘witch hunt’ by the Narendra modi government.
Commenting on the chargesheet, ruling AAP Ministers said it was latest example of the Centre’s ongoing unprecedented ‘witch-hunt’ against its government.
Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia and eleven others AAP MLAs were named as accused in the case related to alleged assault on CS.
Opposition BJP has demanded resignation of CM and Deputy CM must following filing of chargesheet against them.
“Filing of a bogus charge sheet by the politically motivated Delhi Police which is based on imaginary and false allegations by frustrated elements against the chief Minister and Deputy Chief Minister, among others, is the latest example of the Central government’s ongoing unprecedented witch-hunt against the Delhi government,” AAP Ministers Gopal Rai, Satyendar Jain, Kailash Gahlot, Rajendra Pal Gautam and Imran Hussain said in a joint statement issued here on Monday.
Ever since Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP President Amit Shah had suffered the worst ever electoral humiliation of their political careers in February 2015, they have not forgiven the elected government of Delhi and have relentlessly unleashed all their agencies with full might to crush the government to fulfill their arrogant desire of seeking complete revenge, they alleged.
The Ministers said it appeared that the Modi government has learnt no lesson from its previous attempt of booking elected MLAs in false cases during last three and a half years. It is now a documented fact that the fast track courts in Delhi during last five months had acquitted/discharged elected MLAs is 19 out of 22 cases registered against them since February 2015.
“This entire conspiracy to name the Chief Minister and the Deputy Chief Minister in a fake and laughable criminal case is the result of the extreme frustration of the Modi government, which has so far miserably failed in all its attempts to dislodge the Delhi government elected by a historic mandate,” they asserted.
The Ministers said the bogus charge sheet will be torn to shreds when it will be put to legal scrutiny and it will be contested with all legal strength to expose the real face of the Modi government and its puppet Delhi Police, before the people of this country.
However, BJP MLA Vijender Gupta on Monday demanded resignation of CM Kejriwal and Deputy CM Manish Sisodia on filing of against them.
He said that they have lost right to continue in their high offices and govern Delhi.
“It is for the first time in the history that a sitting Chief Minister and Deputy Chief Minister will have to face charges in the Court. The police have filed case against them and 11 MLAs after due diligence based on statements of eye witnesses, CCTVs footage etc. The police has conscientiously performed its duty and made a full proof case,” Mr Gupta said in a statement.
The Leader of Opposition said that the joint statement of all the ministers defending their bosses and 11 MLAs is misleading and baseless.
Agencies.
New Delhi, Aug 10: The government has approved amendments in law relating to Triple Talaq, Law and Justice Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad on Thursday said.
Briefing the media, Mr Prasad said ‘We’ve proposed three changes. If any husband gives triple talaq instantaneously and breaks marriage, then FIR shall only become cognisable, when it is filed by the victim or blood relation or relation by marriage.
‘The law has been made compoundable, that is, if the wife and the husband agree to settle their differences, then the Magistrate can compound the offence on appropriate terms and conditions. The Magistrate can grant the bail to the accused, after hearing the wife,’ he added.
The Union Cabinet also approved inclusion of a provision of granting bail to the men accused of giving instant triple talaq to their wives. While the offence continues to remain non-bailable, the latest provision makes it permissible for a Magistrate to grant bail to the accused.
The Triple Talaq bill aims to set aside the centuries-old practice of instant divorce by men.
The proposed law would only be applicable on instant triple talaq or ‘talaq-e-biddat’ and it would give power to the victim to approach a Magistrate, seeking ‘subsistence allowance’ for herself and minor children.
Besides these, a woman can also seek the custody of her minor children from the Magistrate, who will take a final call on the issue.
Last year, the government had drafted the Bill, after the Supreme Court held the practice un-Islamic and ‘arbitrary’.
The Bill proposes a three-year jail term and fine for any Muslim man, who divorced his wife by uttering talaq three times in quick succession. Sources said the Bill also deals with subsistence allowance for Muslim women and custody of minor children.
New Delhi, Aug 9: It is all set for a contest between Congress Rajya Sabha MP B K Hariprasad and Harivansh Prasad Singh of JD (U) in the election for the post of Deputy Chairman of the Rajya Sabha, with the Opposition voicing confidence of its win, ahead of the August 9 election.
Mr Hariprasad, who was chosen as the joint opposition candidate for the August 9 election late on Tuesday night, on Wednesday filed his nomination papers for the post.
Addressing reporters here, AICC senior spokesperson and Deputy leader of Congress in the Rajya Sabha Anand Sharma expressed confidence on the victory of the Opposition candidate.
‘We have a formidable candidate, not the NDA. If BJP had the majority, it should have fielded its own candidate. They have fielded a candidate of JD (U), which has made few changes in its position in the recent past. They lack the majority and that is why they are desperate to reach out to others outside the fold of NDA.
‘I am making it very clear. NDA as such did not have majority, does not have majority. They have gone well beyond the fold of NDA to get votes,’ Mr Sharma said.
Claiming that the Opposition had the numbers, he said ‘We have the numbers. There will be a contest. Congress didn’t have numbers on its own. But Mr Hariprasad is not a Congress candidate, he belongs to the Indian National Congress, but he is a candidate of the joint opposition.’
He said fielding a joint candidate for the election was a statement by the Opposition, which was not happy with the current state of affairs.
‘’In a democracy, there has to be a contest and fielding a joint opposition candidate is the statement of the opposition, which is not happy with the present state of the affairs and the prevailing environment in the country and therefore, this contest has to be taken in that spirit,’’he said.
Accusing the government of not making any effort to reach out to the Opposition in the choice of candidate for the Deputy Chairman’s post, he said, ‘By convention, normally the Opposition should have been consulted. The present Government does not believe in the practice of consulting the Opposition, nor does it believe in a consensus. Its actions have been opposite to what is called the consensus building in national politics.
The Government merely announced its decision or informed the opposition, did not show that courtesy and respect of consulting with senior leaders in the opposition. So we are as opposition doing what is expected of an opposition in a democracy.
Also, we are concerned about what is happening in our country and environment of fear, distrust, violence, intolerance and mob lynching. There is growing insecurity. Citizens don’t feel protected. Citizens are not having a full enjoyment of their fundamental rights. At the same time, there are mounting difficulties. So the opposition makes a statement by its actions and decisions. ‘’
He said that candidate of Mr Hariprasad had the backing of all opposition parties.
‘This is a joint decision of the parties which have been meeting and deliberating upon this matter for the last few days, which include the Samajwadi Party, the NCP, the BSP, the DMK, the CPI, the CPM and also we have TMC, TDP. TDP has also signed the nomination papers and now it is all set for the elections tomorrow,’’he said.
On the report of the opposition earlier considering name of Mrs vandana Chavan as its candidate, Mr Sharma said,’’ there were many names which were discussed. The opposition leaders met for three days and at yesterday’s deliberation Sharad Pawar Ji was there, Ghulam Nabi ji was there, Ram Gopal Ji, Satish Mishra Ji, Derek O’Brien Ji – Actually, every party leaders were there. So it is a collective decision that has been taken. The opposition was equally comfortable when it comes to Vandana Ji’s candidature. That was not the issue but now the candidate, who is before you, has been proposed by the entire opposition and Vandana Ji is one of the proposers.’’
Mr Sharma said that of the two candidates in the fray, Mr Hariprasad was a better candidate.
‘This is his third term in Parliament. A formidable candidate is a parliamentarian who can conduct the proceedings, who understand the functioning of the House. It’s not only the numbers that make the candidate formidable. Neither the BJP had the numbers nor the NDA but when it comes to the two candidates, we have a better candidate,’ he said.